🐻 Mama Bear vs. Papa Bear: Which Muscular Portfolio Fits You Best?
Buy and hold is not always better.....
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In the world of tactical investing, the Mama Bear and Papa Bear portfolios—introduced by Brian Livingston in Muscular Portfolios (2018)—aim to beat the market by avoiding its worst crashes. Both use ETF momentum to rotate into strength, but they differ in style, scope, and temperament.
💡 Strategy Comparison
📈 Performance Metrics (Jan 2006 – May 2025)
Source: ETFscreen.com – Mama Bear, Papa Bear
🧰 ETF Universes
Mama Bear Portfolio:
SPY – U.S. Large-Cap Stocks
IWM – U.S. Small-Cap Stocks
EFA – Developed International Stocks
EEM – Emerging Market Stocks
TLT – Long-Term Treasury Bonds
VNQ – U.S. Real Estate (REITs)
GLD – Gold
DBC – Commodities
SHY – Short-Term Bonds (Cash Proxy)
Papa Bear Portfolio adds:
VUG – U.S. Large-Cap Growth
VTV – U.S. Large-Cap Value
LQD – Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
BNDX – International Bonds
✅ Which One Should You Use?
👶 Newer or Risk-Averse Investor? Choose Mama Bear.
Lower volatility and simpler ETF set.
Higher Sharpe and Sortino ratios.
Easier to rebalance manually.
🚀 Comfortable with Slightly More Risk and Complexity? Choose Papa Bear.
Broader diversification and more style factors.
May benefit from market regimes that favor international or factor investing.
Still well-protected against major market drops.
📌 Summary:
If you want stability, pick Mama Bear.
If you want diversification, try Papa Bear.
Either one is far more tactical and protective than passive buy-and-hold investing.
📘 Glossary for Newer Investors
CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate. Average yearly growth accounting for compounding.
Max Drawdown: Worst peak-to-trough portfolio loss. Smaller is better.
Standard Deviation: Volatility; how bumpy the ride is.
Sharpe Ratio: Reward per unit of total risk.
Sortino Ratio: Reward per unit of downside risk only.
Ulcer Index: Measures depth and duration of drawdowns.
Martin Ratio: Performance adjusted for pain from drawdowns.
Momentum Strategy: Buys ETFs that have performed best recently.
ETF: Exchange-Traded Fund. A basket of investments you can trade like a stock.
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Author’s Note on Content Creation
I use AI tools like ChatGPT and Gemini to assist with data gathering, historical research validation, and draft refinement. I also regularly review and analyze third-party research, market commentary, and white papers. The final strategies, opinions, and trading insights presented here are entirely my own, grounded in my experience as an investor and educator. AI helps streamline my process, but the conclusions and voice are all mine.